Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Inventory is much looser in some parts of Primary market than the national backdrop

By Erika Spears

Real estate, Primary market

The National Association of Realtors put national months' supply at 4.9 months as of October 4, 2026. That is already the highest level in over ten years. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a range of 4.4 to 13 months across Primary market ZIP codes in the three months ending July 31, 2026. Your ZIP code, not the national number, is what shapes your deal.

How far apart the ZIP codes really are

That 8.6-month gap between the loosest and tightest ZIP codes is not a small difference. In a loose market, buyers have time and room to ask for more. In a tight one, sellers hold more of the cards. The same home, priced the same way, gets a different result depending on which side of that gap it sits.

The two ends of the range

In ZIP 37203, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 13 months of supply. That is well above the national figure the National Association of Realtors reported. Homes there sat a median 82 days before selling. Only 18.8% went under contract within two weeks. Buyers there have real room to negotiate.

ZIP 37205 tells a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted just 4.4 months of supply. That is below the national level. Nearly 35 in 100 homes went under contract within two weeks. Prices dipped 9.1% year over year, so the market is not without its own wrinkles, but homes are moving faster than almost anywhere else in Primary market.

The middle of the market

ZIP 37209 sits right at 4.9 months, matching the national level the National Association of Realtors reported. ZIP 37204 and 37212 are close behind, and both tightened from a year ago. These ZIP codes are more balanced, but they are not the same as each other either.

Where supply is still elevated

ZIP 37201 had a median of 159 days on market, the longest in Primary market. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted only 12 homes sold there in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is a small sample, so read it with some caution. Still, 8.9 months of supply is well above the national level.

ZIP 37208 saw supply climb 2.6 months from a year ago. Sales fell 16.7% over the same period. More homes sitting, fewer selling. That combination gives buyers more time and more choices.

What the broader picture adds

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. Realtor.com noted rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025. Higher rates slow buyer pools everywhere, which matters more in ZIP codes that already have a lot of homes sitting.

Realtor.com also reported active listings up 6.3% nationally from a year ago. That is the fastest pace in at least six months. Primary market is part of that trend, with the Real Estate Data Aggregator counting 1,604 homes for sale across all seven ZIP codes in the three months ending July 31, 2026.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.1% year over year between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. Some Primary market ZIP codes beat that. ZIP 37203 was up 14.9% and ZIP 37204 up 7.6%, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 37205 was down 9.1%. The national number does not tell your street's story.

Speed: not every ZIP is slow

ZIP 37212 had the shortest median time on market at 58 days, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That is 11 days faster than the same period a year ago. ZIP 37201 was at 159 days. Those two are in the same city but in very different markets.

One street can read very differently from the whole ZIP code. The numbers above are a starting point, not the final word on your block. Text me your address and I will tell you where your home sits in this range.